Nifty jumps 1.60% to 22,722 as IT surges on HCLTech results and the FM signals openness on LTCG and STT

Two catalysts, five hours apart. Nifty opened flat at 22,364, led by IT after a strong set of earnings from HCLTech, and climbed above 22,450 within 15 minutes and past 22,550 by 9:45 AM. The rally stalled around 10 AM near 22,570 and the index drifted toward 22,500 by 11 AM, then held a narrow 22,490-22,560 range through midday on subdued buying. Sentiment changed sharply after 2 PM, when the Finance Minister said the government is open to discussing and reviewing LTCG and STT: Nifty pushed above 22,600, then 22,650 by 2:40 PM, crossed 22,700 in the final hour and closed at 22,721.95, near its high and almost 350 points above the open.

• Why a tax comment moves the market: LTCG and STT apply to every equity sale, so any hint that they might fall changes the after-tax return investors expect. The Finance Minister did not announce or promise anything; she said the debate is healthy and that it is too close to the Budget to say what will or will not be considered. Markets priced in the possibility, which can reverse if nothing follows.

• Asia's chip sell-off did not reach India: South Korea's Kospi plunged 7.4% to its lowest since July, with Samsung Electronics down 7.7% and SK Hynix 8.8% on concerns about competition from Chinese memory-chip maker CXMT. Japan's Nikkei fell 2.0%. India's IT rally was driven by services earnings, not chips.

• Valuations ticked up but remain low for large caps: Nifty 50 trades at 19.4x trailing earnings and Next 50 at 18.1x, both lower than on 99% of days since April 2021. Smallcap 250 is at 34.4x, higher than on 90% of days.

• Commodities eased: By 19:30 IST MCX crude was down 1.2% (₹8,824), gold 0.5% (₹1,48,798), silver 1.1% and aluminium 2.0%; natural gas rose 1.9%. Crude fell below $92 a barrel after the US temporarily eased restrictions on Russian diesel exports for six months.

• IMF lifts its global growth forecast: The IMF raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% from 3%, with growth expected to accelerate to 3.4% in 2027, citing resilient advanced economies and AI investment; elevated energy prices remain a key risk.

• OPEC+ output rises: OPEC+ crude production rose by about 900,000 barrels a day to 39.07 million in September, largely on higher Saudi output, despite continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

• Dollar eases from an 18-month high: The dollar index fell 0.3% to 102.26, retreating from 102.61, as oil eased and investors reassessed geopolitical risks ahead of the US midterm elections.

• Kospi's worst day in months: Korea's benchmark fell 7.4% on a semiconductor sell-off, as concerns grew that Chinese chipmaker CXMT could intensify competition in memory chips.

• UPI merchant charges deferred: NPCI deferred the merchant discount rate on select UPI transactions, originally due on October 15, until after Diwali; a revised date will be announced later.

• SEBI extends IPO-size flexibility: SEBI extended until March 31, 2027 its relaxation letting companies revise an IPO's fresh issue size by up to 50% without filing a new draft offer document, subject to conditions.

• Institutions net buyers again: Domestic buying of ₹2,439 crore exceeded foreign selling of ₹1,305 crore (provisional), making institutions net buyers overall for the first time in three sessions, per the AMR.

• A revision to Monday's figure: Monday's foreign selling, reported in that edition as a provisional ₹1,708 crore, has been revised in NSDL data to ₹3,252 crore — slightly more than that day's ₹3,045 crore of domestic buying. A correction has been added to the October 12 edition. Today's ₹1,305 crore is also provisional and may change.

• Twelve sessions and counting: Every session since September 25 shows net foreign selling. Today's provisional ₹1,305 crore is the smallest daily figure of the run.

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”