Nifty rises 1.05% to 22,937 as the Fed holds rates and oil eases; 14 of 15 sectors gain

A flat open, a steady climb and a strong finish. Nifty opened flat at about 22,690 and, in the AMR's account, gained momentum as the US Federal Reserve's decision to pause and a modest decline in crude prices improved sentiment. It reached 22,750 by 9:45 AM, 22,800 around 10 AM and 22,875 by 10:30 AM, before selling at higher levels pulled it back to 22,815 around 11 AM. It then held between about 22,840 and 22,870 through the late morning, dipped toward 22,800 around 12:45 PM, and climbed again after 1 PM, reclaiming 22,900 around 2 PM and touching about 22,960 around 2:50 PM. It closed at 22,936.75 — about 250 points above its open and 237.90 above Wednesday. Kotak Neo also cited expectations of a possible cut in long-term capital gains tax — expectations, not an announced change.

• Oil: The AMR says Brent crude fell toward $114 a barrel, retreating from four-year highs as renewed diplomatic efforts raised hopes of easing Middle East tensions. Around 3:39 PM, Kotak Neo quoted Brent January 2027 futures at $110.17 and US crude (WTI) December futures at $101.30. Brent is still up more than 17% this month. Oil & Gas rose 0.5%.

• Broader market: Next 50 rose 1.2%, Midcap 150 0.9% and Smallcap 250 and Microcap 250 0.7% each. Over 20 sessions they are still down 1.9%, 2.8%, 3.6% and 6.9%, against a 1.0% gain for the Nifty 50; none of eight broad indices is above all four of its key moving averages.

• Valuations: Nifty 50 trades at 19.2x trailing earnings and Next 50 at 17.4x, each lower than on 99% of days since April 2021 in the AMR's data. Midcap 150, at 26.8x, is lower than on 69% of days, while Smallcap 250, at 32.1x, is higher than on 76%.

• Options positioning: Put writing picked up: the put-call ratio rose from 1.07 to 1.31, while implied volatility eased from 15.3% to 13%. For the November 3 expiry, options imply a range of about 22,694 to 23,251, with the largest put open interest at 22,000 and call open interest at 23,500. The 50-day moving average, at 23,277, remains the next major trend hurdle in the AMR's view.

• Commodities: By 19:07 IST, MCX crude was down 2.6% at ₹9,545 (still up 11.4% over 20 sessions) and natural gas 3.7%; gold slipped 0.4% to ₹1,43,111 and silver 2.0% to ₹1,90,398.

• Fed holds: The Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.75%–4.00% at its October meeting, following a 25-basis-point hike in September, with two policymakers favouring another increase. It highlighted resilient growth and employment but warned that inflation remains elevated and geopolitical uncertainty clouds the outlook.

• Alphabet slides: Alphabet shares fell more than 10% in after-hours trading on Wednesday after its September-quarter profit missed estimates, per Kotak Neo; the AMR reports a drop of as much as 13.4%. Net profit fell 25% to $26.2 billion, revenue rose 25% to $127.6 billion, and Search revenue growth slowed to 12% from 17% the previous quarter, while AI spending stayed heavy.

• Oil majors beat estimates: Shell's third-quarter net profit of $10.81 billion beat estimates of $10.33 billion, and it raised its quarterly buyback to $5 billion. TotalEnergies' adjusted net income of $9.1 billion beat expectations of $8.3 billion, with $5 billion of buybacks planned over the next two quarters. Both benefited from higher energy prices and strong refining margins.

• BYD's profit growth slows: BYD's net profit rose 28% to 10 billion yuan ($1.5 billion), weaker than expected, on revenue up 13.6% to 221.5 billion yuan. Vehicle sales rose 18.8% to more than 1.32 million as overseas shipments more than doubled, while competition in China and abroad weighed on growth.

• SEBI to review FPI rules: SEBI Chairman Tuhin Kanta Pandey said the regulator would review compliance rules for foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and seek public feedback on aligning them with international practice, per Kotak Neo.

• Power-sector data framework: The Power Ministry released the National Electricity Data Sharing Framework to standardise how data is classified and shared across the sector. Adoption is voluntary for generators, distribution and transmission companies and regulators, with safeguards for critical-infrastructure information.

• Coal India's profit jumps: Coal India's consolidated profit rose 57% to ₹6,547 crore and revenue 21% to ₹44,179 crore in the September quarter, per Kotak Neo. Godrej Consumer Products' net profit grew 14% to ₹523 crore on revenue up 19%.

• Welspun Corp expands abroad: Welspun Corp approved investments of up to ₹2,280 crore to expand steel-pipe capacity in the US and set up manufacturing and coating facilities in Jordan, alongside its quarterly results.

• A fund manager's view: S. Naren, Executive Director and Chief Investment Officer of ICICI Prudential AMC, was quoted in the AMR as saying: "The exuberance is not in India; it is in the US." It is one fund manager's opinion, not a forecast.

• Revisions to Tuesday and Wednesday: The AMR's chart now shows NSDL's figures for October 27 and 28. Tuesday's foreign flow, first reported provisionally as a ₹4,240 crore purchase, is now a ₹1,341 crore sale; Wednesday's provisional ₹872 crore purchase is now ₹4,198 crore. We have corrected the October 27 and 28 editions. Domestic figures are unchanged.

• Today (provisional): Domestic institutions bought a net ₹1,924 crore. For foreign investors, sources differ: NSE's provisional data show a net sale of ₹944 crore, while the AMR's chart shows a ₹1,113 crore purchase. Either figure may be revised. Using the AMR's chart, foreign investors bought a net ₹2,115 crore over the last ten sessions and domestic institutions ₹14,526 crore.

• Derivatives: Foreign investors bought a net ₹7,373 crore of index options on notional value, ₹2,112 crore of stock futures and ₹81 crore of stock options, and sold ₹423 crore of index futures. The AMR notes options look far larger on this measure, so the sign matters more than the size.

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