Nifty jumps 1.68% to 23,441 as Reliance surges 11.6% on record profit and oil eases

A gap-up, a midday dip and a strong close. Nifty opened with a 169-point gap-up at about 23,222, which the AMR attributes to Reliance's results and a more than 3% fall in oil prices. After some early volatility it climbed towards 23,300 within the first 30 minutes and towards 23,350 around 10:45 AM. Profit-booking then pulled it back towards 23,300; a recovery towards 23,340 around noon faded, and it slipped below 23,300 after 12:30 PM to a low of 23,207 in the early afternoon. Buying at lower levels lifted it back above 23,250 by 2 PM and towards 23,325 by 2:45 PM, and after some consolidation a strong closing auction took it to 23,440.80 — about 219 points above its open and 387.70 above Friday. It never traded below Friday's close. Moneycontrol reports Reliance was the biggest contributor to the index's rise.

• Oil: The AMR says Brent crude fell 4.5% towards $108 a barrel as renewed diplomacy between the US and Iran eased worries about further supply disruptions. Around 3:37 PM, Kotak Neo quoted Brent January 2027 futures at $108.71 and US crude (WTI) December futures at $99.74. Oil & Gas rose 6.0%, and Tijori's Oil Refiners basket 4.2%.

• Broader market: Next 50 rose 1.9%, Midcap 150 1.2%, and Smallcap 250 and Microcap 250 1.4% each. Over 20 sessions the Nifty 50 is up 4.5% and Next 50 flat, while Midcap 150, Smallcap 250 and Microcap 250 are down 1.5%, 3.4% and 6.4%; none of eight broad indices is above all four of its key moving averages.

• Valuations: Nifty 50 trades at 19.4x trailing earnings, lower than on 98% of days since April 2021 in the AMR's data, and Next 50 at 16.8x, lower than on every day. Midcap 150, at 26.6x, is lower than on 71% of days, while Smallcap 250, at 31.4x, is higher than on 70%.

• Options positioning: Implied volatility for the November 9 expiry rose from 13.8% to 14.5%, making protection slightly costlier. For the November 3 expiry, options imply a range of about 23,177 to 23,482, with the largest put open interest at 23,000 and call open interest at 24,000. Short covering dominated stock futures: eight of the twelve biggest changes in open interest were traders closing bets against stocks that rose. The 100-day moving average, at 23,692, is the next major trend hurdle in the AMR's view.

• Commodities: By 19:58 IST, MCX crude was down 7.0% at ₹9,246 (still up 7.9% over 20 sessions) and natural gas up 1.6%; gold rose 1.0% to ₹1,39,899 and silver 2.6% to ₹1,83,764, leaving silver down 18.7% over 20 sessions.

• US–Iran diplomacy: President Donald Trump reportedly favoured giving negotiations more time before considering military action, and Iranian officials signalled that a deal remained possible after talks mediated by Qatar, per the AMR. That eased concerns about further supply disruptions and pulled Brent crude lower.

• US tech after a hard October: US stock futures advanced on Monday as technology and AI-related shares showed signs of stabilising after October, when the Nasdaq-100 lost more than $2.5 trillion in market value, per the AMR. Investors remain cautious about Big Tech's AI spending and growing reliance on debt, with the US midterm elections and earnings ahead. In Friday's session, the S&P 500 fell 2.1% and the Nasdaq 100 2.3%.

• Japan's factories: Japan's manufacturing PMI eased to 53.3 in October from 54.1, the slowest expansion in seven months, though factory activity grew for a tenth straight month, helped by semiconductor and AI-related demand.

• BYD's overseas push: Chinese electric-vehicle maker BYD's October sales rose 11% from a year earlier to about 4.9 lakh units, a sixth straight month of growth. Overseas shipments rose 102.8% to about 1.7 lakh units, offsetting sluggish demand and price competition at home.

• SEBI on capital-gains tax: SEBI has recommended removing long-term capital gains (LTCG) tax for foreign portfolio investors and giving tax relief to domestic mutual-fund investors who switch between schemes, Reuters reports via the AMR. The proposals respond to persistent foreign outflows and India's underperformance against other emerging markets; the government will make the final decision.

• Factory activity: India's manufacturing PMI eased to 54.7 in October from 55.1 in September, still well in expansion. Output and new orders grew more slowly, but export orders grew at a six-month high and selling-price inflation eased to nearly a four-year low.

• Ambuja Cements expansion: Adani Group-owned Ambuja Cements plans to invest about ₹14,500 crore to add 30 million tonnes a year of capacity, taking the total to 155 million tonnes by FY30, with new plants and upgrades in eastern, western and northern India.

• Spandana Sphoorty: The microfinance lender reported unauthorised transactions of about ₹7.8 crore from one of its bank accounts on November 1. It suspended the affected services, asked banks to freeze the beneficiary accounts and reverse the transactions, and filed a complaint on the National Cyber Crime Reporting Portal.

• Government capital spending: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, quoted in the AMR, said government capital expenditure remains "a very important component of our growth strategy" until the private sector expands capacity, adding: "We shall continue doing that because India's growth momentum should not be lost at all."

• Today (provisional): Domestic institutions sold a net ₹392.20 crore, their second net sale in a row. For foreign investors the sources differ but agree on direction: the AMR's chart shows a net purchase of ₹4,319 crore and NSE's provisional data ₹3,115 crore. Either figure may be revised.

• Friday revised: The AMR's chart now shows NSDL's figure for October 30 as a ₹813 crore sale; our October 30 edition reported NSE's provisional ₹3,599 crore purchase, and we have corrected it. No other earlier figures changed. Using the AMR's chart, foreign investors bought a net ₹10,873 crore over the last ten sessions and domestic institutions ₹13,658 crore.

• Derivatives: Foreign investors bought a net ₹10,513 crore of index options on notional value, ₹3,771 crore of stock futures, ₹1,113 crore of index futures and ₹399 crore of stock options. The AMR notes options look far larger on this measure, so the sign matters more than the size.

“In investing, you get what you don't pay for.”