Nifty rises 0.51% to 23,053 as IT gains 2.3%, but nearly four stocks fall for every one that rises

A morning dip, a midday rally and a late fade. Nifty opened with a modest 28-point gap-up at about 22,965 despite what the AMR calls weak global cues — concerns over the sustainability of AI-related capital spending and elevated oil prices. After an early swing toward 22,990, selling dragged it to its low near 22,905 around 10:30 AM. Buying at lower levels then lifted it past 23,000 by 11 AM and toward 23,100 around noon, and it touched about 23,118 around 1 PM. In the afternoon, profit-booking pulled it below 23,050 by 1:30 PM and toward 23,000 around 2 PM; a rebound to about 23,075 faded, and it slipped toward 23,000 again in the final hour before closing at 23,053.10 — about 90 points above its open and 116.35 above Thursday. Kotak Neo says the benchmarks held their ground despite a decline in global technology shares, while broader markets came under pressure.

• Oil: The AMR says Brent crude climbed above $113 a barrel, approaching its four-year high of $116.72, as renewed threats of US military action against Iran and two tanker incidents near the Strait of Hormuz raised supply concerns. Around 3:35 PM, Kotak Neo quoted Brent January 2027 futures at $113.09 and US crude (WTI) December futures at $103.99. Oil & Gas fell 0.5%.

• Broader market: Next 50 fell 0.6%, Midcap 150 0.9%, Smallcap 250 2.0% and Microcap 250 2.5%. Over 20 sessions they are down 2.9%, 3.8%, 5.8% and 8.9%, against a 1.9% gain for the Nifty 50; none of eight broad indices is above all four of its key moving averages.

• Valuations: Nifty 50 trades at 19.3x trailing earnings, lower than on 98% of days since April 2021 in the AMR's data, and Next 50 at 17.1x, lower than on every day. Midcap 150, at 26.3x, is lower than on 74% of days, while Smallcap 250, at 31.3x, is higher than on 70%.

• Options positioning: Put writing strengthened: the put-call ratio rose from 1.31 to 1.42, while implied volatility eased from 13% to 12%. For the November 3 expiry, options imply a range of about 22,795 to 23,258, with the largest put open interest at 22,000 and call open interest at 23,500. The 50-day moving average, at 23,255, remains the next major trend hurdle in the AMR's view.

• Commodities: By 19:30 IST, MCX crude was up 2.1% at ₹9,915 (up 13.4% over 20 sessions) and natural gas down 2.6%; gold fell 2.3% to ₹1,39,320 and silver 4.8% to ₹1,80,330, leaving silver down 20.2% over 20 sessions.

• Record crypto theft: Hackers stole about $6.3 billion from the crypto exchange Binance, Reuters and the AMR report, with blockchain analysts TRM Labs and Chainalysis attributing the attack to North Korea; Binance and law enforcement had not confirmed the attribution. Binance halted withdrawals and pledged to cover customer losses. Tether said it had frozen about $1.57 billion and Circle more than $800 million, and Binance says about $3 billion has been frozen so far.

• Intel slides after results: Intel shares fell more than 20% in after-hours trading on Thursday after its fourth-quarter revenue outlook of $15–16 billion came in below expectations, per Quartz; the AMR puts the fall at 23% and cites cash burn, weak PC demand and manufacturing bottlenecks. Reports of the size of the fall differ.

• Amazon's spending worries: Amazon shares fell as much as 7% in extended trading, per the AMR, after the company reported substantial third-quarter cash burn and signalled higher AI-related capital spending next year. Growth at Amazon Web Services accelerated, and its fourth-quarter revenue forecast of $240–247 billion had a midpoint slightly below estimates.

• Foxconn and OpenAI: Foxconn, the world's largest contract electronics maker, said it is exploring a collaboration with OpenAI. Chairman Young Liu confirmed meeting OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and said an announcement would follow once an agreement is finalised; no details have been disclosed.

• Fiscal deficit: The Centre's fiscal deficit stood at ₹7.14 lakh crore in April–September FY27, 42.1% of the full-year target of ₹16.96 lakh crore, against 36.5% of the target in the same period last year, per the AMR.

• Forex reserves: India's foreign exchange reserves fell by $1.2 billion to $719.74 billion in the week ended October 24, after a $5 billion fall the previous week. They are well below the record $785.71 billion reached in early September. Kotak Neo reports the rupee gained 1% in October, its best month since February.

• Aditya Birla Capital: Net profit rose 38% to ₹1,288 crore and revenue 31% to ₹16,545 crore. Total lending assets under management, across its NBFC and housing-finance businesses, rose 32% to ₹2.34 lakh crore.

• AU Small Finance Bank: The bank is investigating a potential leak of limited information about its vehicle-loan customers from a Salesforce-hosted platform. It said its internal systems are unaffected and all banking services are operating normally.

• Asian Paints on demand: MD and CEO Amit Syngle, quoted in the AMR, said the company has taken an additional price increase of about 3.5% in November and that rural markets are growing faster than urban ones, while it remains mindful of a slight monsoon deficit.

• Today (provisional): Foreign investors bought a net ₹3,599 crore of Indian shares, per NSE's provisional data — a figure that may be revised when NSDL reports. Domestic institutions sold a net ₹818 crore, their third net sale in the last ten sessions.

• Thursday settled: The AMR's chart now shows NSDL's figure for October 29 as a ₹1,113 crore purchase, the number our October 29 edition charted; NSE's provisional data had shown a ₹944 crore sale. No earlier figures changed. Over the last ten sessions, foreign investors bought a net ₹6,808 crore and domestic institutions ₹10,389 crore.

• Derivatives: Foreign investors bought a net ₹5,504 crore of index options on notional value, and sold ₹448 crore of index futures, ₹288 crore of stock futures and ₹94 crore of stock options. The AMR notes options look far larger on this measure, so the sign matters more than the size.

“Don't look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack!”