Nifty jumps 2.40% to 24,537 in its best day in six months as oil slides after the US midterms

A big gap-up, a quiet morning and an afternoon push past 24,500. Nifty opened with a 417-point gap-up at about 24,378, which the AMR links to buoyant global markets and a sharp fall in oil prices after the US midterm elections. It slipped to a low of 24,296 in the opening minutes — still well above Wednesday's close of 23,960.60 — recovered towards 24,440 around 9:50 AM, eased back towards 24,350 by 10:45 AM and then held between about 24,350 and 24,420 through the rest of the morning. Buying picked up after midday, taking it above 24,450 around 1 PM and past 24,500 after 1:30 PM to a high of 24,580 around 1:45 PM. Some profit-taking pulled it back towards 24,500 by 2:20 PM before it recovered towards 24,560 and closed at 24,536.60. The AMR credits easing oil prices and positive global cues. Unlike Wednesday, the largest companies led: the Nifty 50 rose 2.4% against the Smallcap 250's 0.8%.

• Oil: Around 3:36 PM, Kotak Neo quoted Brent January 2027 futures at $96.15 a barrel and US crude (WTI) December futures at $88.63, extending the previous session's 9% fall as traders weighed the US midterm results. The AMR links the fall to expectations of pressure on President Trump to end the conflict with Iran. Oil & Gas rose just 0.3%.

• Broader market: Midcap 150 rose 1.9%, Microcap 250 1.1% and Smallcap 250 0.8%. Over 20 sessions the Nifty 50 is up 8.6% and Midcap 150 2.1%, while Smallcap 250 and Microcap 250 are still down 2.1% and 4.1%. Midcap 150 is now above its 200-day average but below its 100-day; Smallcap 250 and Microcap 250 are below their 50-day and 100-day averages.

• Valuations: Nifty 50 trades at 20.2x trailing earnings, lower than on 90% of days since April 2021 in the AMR's data, and Next 50 at 17.5x, lower than on 99%. Midcap 150, at 27.8x, is lower than on 61% of days, while Smallcap 250, at 32.4x, is higher than on 78%.

• Options positioning: The put-call ratio (puts open divided by calls open) rose from 1.15 to 1.29 as put writing strengthened, and implied volatility rose to 15.4%. For the November 9 expiry, options imply a range of about 24,229 to 24,862, with the largest call open interest at 25,000. The AMR's text puts the largest put open interest at 23,000, while its strike chart, which starts at 23,400, shows the most at 23,500. Six of the twelve biggest changes in futures open interest were short covering; Sun Pharma, TCS, Bank Nifty and Divi's Laboratories saw long buildup (new bets on a rise).

• Commodities: By 18:51 IST, MCX crude was up 1.6% at ₹8,495 but down 12.5% over five sessions, and natural gas down 0.9%. Gold rose 1.0% to ₹1,44,710 and silver 0.3% to ₹1,88,220, though silver is still down 14.9% over 20 sessions. Copper was little changed.

• US midterm elections: CBS News projects Democrats will win the House, and reports they were on track for at least 54 Senate seats with the Alaska and Mississippi races still unresolved. The AMR describes the result as a Democratic sweep. On Wednesday, the Dow rose 3.03%, the S&P 500 1.58% and the Nasdaq Composite 1.44%, per Kotak Neo.

• Bank of England: The Bank of England raised its Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4%, its first increase since August 2023. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 8–1, with one member preferring a 0.5-point rise, and the Bank says UK inflation could approach 5% by mid-2027, partly because of higher energy prices.

• US trade and tech: The US trade deficit narrowed 0.7% to $105 billion in September, even as imports hit a record amid heavy corporate spending on AI. Qualcomm shares fell about 9% before the US open after smartphone chip sales missed Wall Street expectations, per the AMR.

• Asia: Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 4.0% and is up 8.1% over five sessions, while Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 1.3%. Nippon Steel raised its fiscal 2026 net profit forecast by 52% to ¥440 billion ($2.8 billion), citing stronger earnings at US Steel.

• Bharti Airtel: Consolidated net profit rose 24% from a year earlier to ₹10,710 crore and revenue 16.7% to ₹60,878 crore. India revenue rose 9.4% to ₹42,308 crore, and average revenue per user rose to ₹271 from ₹256.

• Adani Ports: Adani Ports plans to buy all of Evos, which the AMR describes as Europe's second-largest independent liquid storage operator, at an enterprise value of €2.56 billion. The all-cash deal values Evos' equity at €1.18 billion.

• LIC: Life Insurance Corporation of India's net profit rose 20% to ₹12,076 crore in Q2 FY27, and total income 9.7% to ₹2.63 lakh crore. Renewal premiums rose to ₹68,375 crore from ₹64,996 crore.

• BEML: BEML's consolidated net profit fell 31.3% to ₹33 crore even as revenue rose 42.1% to ₹1,192 crore, as material, operating and tax costs rose. It won orders worth ₹6,229 crore in the quarter, taking its order book to ₹21,388 crore.

• On valuations: Uday Kotak, founder of Kotak Mahindra Bank, said India "is not looking as expensive as it did six months to a year ago on a relative basis compared to other markets", and that he hopes foreign portfolio flows will stabilise as the overhang of heavy AI investment eases.

• Today (provisional): Foreign investors bought a net ₹14,975 crore in NSE's provisional data, their fourth straight day of buying in our chart and the largest figure of the ten sessions; it may be revised when NSDL reports. Domestic institutions sold a net ₹10,445 crore, their fifth net sale in a row and also the largest of the ten sessions.

• Earlier days: As on Wednesday, the AMR's chart matches earlier reports for domestic institutions but appears to place foreign-investor values one session off their dates, and it now shows ₹3,271 crore, ₹6,899 crore and ₹7,861 crore against November 2, 3 and 4. Because we cannot tell which session each belongs to, we have not taken revisions from it; the November 3 and 4 foreign figures remain NSE's provisional numbers until we can confirm NSDL's.

• Derivatives: Foreign investors bought a net ₹7,884 crore of index futures on notional value, ₹11,461 crore of index options, ₹2,936 crore of stock futures and ₹1,171 crore of stock options. The AMR notes options look far larger on this measure, so the sign matters more than the size.

“Price is what you pay; value is what you get.”