Nifty jumps 1.66% to 22,997 as India bucks an Asian tech sell-off — but most stocks fall

Bucking a global tech sell-off. Nifty opened 48 points higher at 22,671 despite South Korean and Japanese markets falling 8% and 5% on concerns over high interest rates and the sustainability of AI investments. It gained momentum quickly, crossing 22,750 within 20 minutes, 22,850 by 10 AM and 22,950 by 11 AM. After brief profit booking toward 22,890, buying resumed; Nifty crossed 23,000 around 12:40 PM and reached about 23,050 around 1:45 PM. Profit booking after 2 PM took it toward 22,930 by 3 PM before a recovery in the closing session lifted it back to 22,997.35, about 330 points above the open.

• What "AI hedge" means here: The sell-off hit markets dominated by AI hardware and chip makers. India's large listed companies are mostly banks, IT services, consumer and energy businesses, so concerns about AI spending hit them less directly. That can make Indian large caps look like a diversifier in a tech sell-off, as on Thursday — a description of one day, not a forecast.

• A heavyweight rally hides a weak broader market: The index rose on Private Banks, IT and Auto, while the average stock fell 0.53% and Smallcap 250 dropped 1.1%. Fund investors in mid- and small-cap funds would have seen a very different day from Nifty index-fund investors.

• Valuations moved up for large caps: Nifty 50 trades at 19.6x trailing earnings (lower than on 97% of days since April 2021); Next 50 at 18.0x; Smallcap 250 at 33.9x, higher than on 88% of days.

• Commodities: By 19:50 IST MCX crude was up 0.2% (₹9,049), natural gas 2.2%, gold 1.0% (₹1,47,314) and silver 0.9%. Crude traded around $95 a barrel on renewed shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

• Technical levels: Options imply a 22,715-23,174 range into the October 19 expiry, with the heaviest put open interest at 22,500 and call at 24,000. With Nifty now above the 20-day average (22,858 as of Wednesday), the AMR names the 50-day moving average at 23,580 as the next major hurdle.

• Asian tech slumps: Kospi plunged nearly 8%, extending losses to a seventh session, and the Nikkei fell 5%, on concerns about high rates and the sustainability of AI investment.

• AI credit stress: Credit default swap spreads widened for AI-linked companies — CoreWeave above 1,000 basis points, Oracle at 288 and SoftBank at 424 — on concerns about debt-funded AI infrastructure.

• TSMC's sixth straight record quarter: Q3 net profit jumped 69% to T$763.1 billion, and TSMC raised its 2026 revenue-growth forecast to about 44%, while cautioning about macroeconomic uncertainty and rising component costs into 2027.

• US producer prices jump: September PPI rose 1.3% month-on-month against 0.5% expected, the sharpest rise since March 2022, with energy costs up 10.8%.

• Treasuries rally: The US 10-year yield fell nearly 13 basis points to 5.05% as investors sought safety.

• Direct tax collections up 13.2%: Net direct tax collections reached ₹13.38 lakh crore as of October 14, up 13.2%, on strong corporate tax and higher STT receipts. Gross collections rose 14.9% to ₹16.03 lakh crore; refunds rose 24.2% to ₹2.65 lakh crore.

• STT collections up 52%: Securities transaction tax collections rose nearly 52% to ₹46,840 crore between April 1 and October 14, from about ₹31,000 crore a year earlier, amid heightened market volatility — context for this week's debate on STT.

• Stellantis to invest ₹4,000 crore: The carmaker plans to invest ₹4,000 crore in India over three years and launch 12 Jeep and Citroën models, aiming to triple domestic volumes by 2030.

• Polycab on UltraTech's entry into wires: Polycab's management said there is room for new players and it does not see real competition in the near term, adding that the impact falls mainly on wires-heavy players.

• Revisions change the story: October 13, reported as a provisional ₹1,305 crore of foreign selling, is now ₹545 crore of foreign buying. October 14, reported as ₹1,857 crore of selling, is now ₹1,552 crore. Foreign investors were therefore net sellers on every session from September 25 to October 12, then net buyers on October 13.

• Thursday: Foreign investors sold ₹1,094 crore and domestic institutions bought ₹3,319 crore. The latest day's foreign figure may still be revised.

• Foreign derivatives positioning turned less bearish: FIIs bought a net 16,870 index-futures contracts, lifting the share of their positions held long from 9.4% to 10.8% — still very low.

“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”