Nifty closes a 2.8% week at 23,146 with a second straight gain as IT jumps 3.9%

An early wobble, then IT carried the day. Nifty opened 68 points higher at 23,065, extending Thursday's momentum despite mixed global cues and a spike in oil prices. It came under immediate selling pressure, slipping below 23,000 within minutes and toward 22,920 by 9:40 AM. Buying from the lows took it back above 23,000 around 10 AM and toward 23,140 by 10:15 AM. After easing to about 23,075 by 11:15 AM it recovered to about 23,125 by noon, then traded between 23,100 and 23,140 through the early afternoon. Selling after 2 PM pulled it toward 23,080, but buying returned in the closing minutes and Nifty closed at 23,146.15 — about 80 points above its open, its second straight gain and the end of a strong week despite an uncertain global backdrop.

• IT's run is now the market's main engine: The AMR's weekly edition calls it a record-breaking rally: IT has outperformed the Nifty 500 by 14.5 percentage points over 13 weeks, ahead of Media, Telecom and Private Banks. A rally this concentrated lifts the index more than the average stock — which is why breadth was only modestly positive.

• The broader market is still in a downtrend: Over 20 sessions, Next 50 is down 3.0%, Midcap 150 3.7% and Smallcap 250 2.1%, against just 0.5% for the Nifty 50. Only 22.1% of Nifty 500 stocks sit above their 50-day average.

• Valuations moved up but remain at the cheap end for large caps: Nifty 50 trades at 19.8x trailing earnings (lower than on 96% of days since April 2021) and Next 50 at 18.0x. Smallcap 250, at 33.7x, is still higher than on 85% of days.

• Options traders sold calls into the rally: The put-call ratio fell from 1.37 to 1.21 as call writing picked up, and implied volatility fell from 12% to 10.8%. Options implied a 22,922-23,285 range into the October 19 expiry, with the heaviest put open interest at 22,000 and call open interest at 24,000; the 50-day moving average at 23,549 is the next trend hurdle.

• Commodities: oil up on the week, precious metals down: By 18:48 IST MCX crude was down 0.5% on the day (₹9,128) but up 3.4% over five sessions; natural gas fell 4.2%. Gold (₹1,47,587) and silver were nearly flat on the day but down 2.6% and 6.5% over five sessions.

• Oil near $98 after a 6% weekly rise: Escalating Middle East tensions raised supply concerns; a container ship sank after an Iranian strike in the Strait of Hormuz, although some shipping traffic continued through the waterway.

• Indonesia's market crashes 11.6%: Its benchmark index fell 11.57%, the biggest one-day decline since 1998, after MSCI outlined plans to remove the country from its emerging-market indexes; the rupiah briefly weakened to 18,070 per dollar.

• Global equity funds draw inflows for a fourth week: Net inflows were $20.01 billion in the week to October 14, helped by easing US Treasury yields and earnings optimism, though investors pulled money from technology funds amid rising debt concerns.

• Global EV sales dip: Electric-vehicle sales fell 2% in September, ending six months of growth, as record European sales failed to offset weakness in China and North America after US federal EV tax credits expired.

• Fed chair keeps options open: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh avoided signalling October's decision, saying stronger-than-expected inflation had not changed his broader outlook; traders further reduced expectations of an October rate hike.

• Monsoon ends 15% short: India received 76.86 cm of rain between June 4 and October 15 against a long-period average of 90.63 cm, per IMD data — a significantly weaker-than-normal southwest monsoon.

• Forex reserves keep falling: Reserves fell $8.58 billion to $726.03 billion in the week to October 9, another weekly decline, and are nearly $60 billion below the September 4 record of $785.71 billion.

• Reliance responds on Starlink: Reliance Industries pushed back against Elon Musk's criticism over delays in Starlink's India entry, saying Jio's satellite services are also awaiting government approvals and that it has never feared competition.

• SEBI on derivatives settlement: SEBI whole-time member K. V. R. Murty said the closing auction session remains in use for price discovery, but derivative contracts will now be settled using prices from the continuous trading session between 3:00 and 3:30 PM, adding that liquidity in the auction session has built up steadily over the past two months.

• A one-day role reversal: Foreign investors bought a provisional ₹1,166 crore while domestic institutions sold ₹3,661 crore — the first net domestic sale in the ten sessions shown. One day is not a trend, and the foreign figure may be revised when NSDL reports.

• The week and the month: Over the week, foreign investors sold ₹4,187 crore and domestic institutions bought ₹7,813 crore. Over four weeks, foreign outflows of ₹71,172 crore were more than absorbed by ₹87,979 crore of domestic buying, which the AMR describes as continued dependence on domestic institutional support.

• Foreign derivatives positioning keeps improving from a low base: FIIs bought a net 6,828 index-futures contracts and raised the share of their positions held long to 11.3% — up from 9.6% a week earlier, but still very low against retail and HNI traders' 83%.

“The big money is not in the buying or the selling, but in the waiting.”