Nifty falls 0.5% to 22,688 for a third straight day as Brent nears $112; small caps slide again

A volatile day that ended where it began. Nifty opened with a 123-point gap down at 22,688, extending Wednesday's weakness as oil touched its highest level since May. It plunged toward 22,560 in the opening minutes, recovered to 22,650 by 9:45 AM and slipped back toward 22,600 by 10 AM. Buying then lifted it above 22,700 and toward an intraday high near 22,785 by 11:10 AM, but selling at higher levels dragged it back toward 22,620 by 11:45 AM. Another rebound toward 22,750 around 12:50 PM faded quickly, and the index spent much of the afternoon between 22,620 and 22,650. A push toward 22,705 at 2:40 PM was erased, and late buying lifted Nifty to a close of 22,687.65 — almost unchanged from its open, but about 120 points below Wednesday's close.

• Oil set the tone: Brent December futures were at $111.71 a barrel and US crude at $99.32 around 3:36 PM, per Kotak Neo, after a drone attack on a Saudi Aramco oilfield deepened worries about supplies from the widening West Asia conflict.

• Smaller companies kept falling: Midcap 150 fell 0.8%, Smallcap 250 1.1% and Microcap 250 1.0%. Over five sessions they are down 3.6%, 5.5% and 6.1%, while the Nifty 50 is up 0.3%.

• Valuations: Nifty 50 trades at 19.1x trailing earnings and Next 50 at 17.5x, both lower than on virtually every day since April 2021. Midcap 150, at 27.0x, is lower than on 68% of days, while Smallcap 250, at 32.1x, is higher than on 76%.

• Where the options market is positioned: Put writing strengthened, lifting the put-call ratio from 0.78 to 0.88. Options imply a range of about 22,410 to 23,010 into the October 27 expiry, with the largest put positions at 22,000 and call positions at 24,000. The AMR sees the 20-day moving average, at 22,756, as the first trend hurdle.

• Commodities: By 19:28 IST MCX crude was up 2.4% at ₹9,428, while gold fell 1.4% to ₹1,43,975 and silver 3.9% to ₹2,01,047; silver is down 14.8% over 20 sessions. Copper fell 1.9%.

• Oil near its highest since May: Brent climbed toward $112 a barrel amid fears of renewed US strikes against Iran. Reports of a potential US-Israeli military operation and Washington's evacuation order for non-emergency personnel in Saudi Arabia added to concerns about escalating regional tensions.

• Meta: a strong quarter and a costly verdict: Meta's third-quarter revenue rose 26% from a year earlier, beating expectations; it projected fourth-quarter revenue of $73–76 billion and raised the lower end of its capital-spending forecast as it builds AI infrastructure. Separately, a New Mexico judge ordered it to pay $25 billion after a jury found it misled consumers about the privacy of their data, in a case stemming from the Cambridge Analytica scandal.

• Barclays to cut about 5,000 jobs: The bank plans to cut roughly 5% of its workforce as part of a cost-reduction drive, citing AI-driven efficiencies and organisational simplification.

• Apple rations its first foldable: Apple limited pre-orders of the iPhone Duo to two per customer; launch-day delivery slots reportedly sold out within minutes, and some customers face waits into November and December.

• SEBI eases margins for early pay-in: Investors can now use the value of shares delivered through the Early Pay-In (EPI) facility to meet margin requirements for subsequent trades, reducing the need for extra margin money in the cash market.

• Rupee's winning streak ends: The rupee weakened 0.4% to ₹94.8175 per dollar, ending an eight-session winning streak, as Brent rose and Middle East tensions escalated — despite touching a six-week high earlier in the session.

• NCDEX moves into equities: The commodity exchange announced its entry into equity and equity-derivatives markets with two indices: NDEX, tracking 20 large and liquid Indian stocks, and FINNDEX, of 15 financial-sector stocks.

• Himadri's ₹1,613 crore expansion: Himadri Speciality Chemicals plans to invest across lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery materials, speciality chemicals, carbon nanotubes and speciality carbon black, with projects expected to finish by the fourth quarter of next financial year.

• Copper demand up 12%: India's copper demand rose 12% to 2,100 kilotonnes in FY26 from 1,878 kilotonnes, per the International Copper Association India, on demand from infrastructure, automobiles and construction.

• Today's figure flipped: NSE's provisional data on the evening of October 22 showed foreign investors selling a net ₹3,459 crore. NSDL's custody data, reported the next day, shows a net purchase of ₹1,407 crore instead — a swing of ₹4,866 crore. This edition uses the NSDL figure; see the Concept of the Day for why the two differ.

• Domestic institutions kept buying: Domestic institutions bought a net ₹2,891 crore, their ninth purchase in the last ten sessions. Over those ten sessions, foreign investors sold a net ₹25,099 crore and domestic institutions bought ₹30,964 crore.

• Derivatives: Foreign investors sold a net ₹6,781 crore of index options and ₹407 crore of index futures on notional value, and bought ₹1,265 crore of stock futures and ₹29 crore of stock options. The AMR notes options look far larger on this measure, so the sign matters more than the size.

“You can't predict. You can prepare.”