Nifty slips 0.3% to 22,811 after giving up a strong open; IT the only sector up as small caps fall 2.3%

A strong open, then a steady slide. Nifty opened with a 127-point gap up at 23,016, tracking a rally in global markets led by AI stocks despite elevated oil prices, and climbed above 23,100 within 20 minutes. The optimism faded quickly: selling dragged it below 23,000 by 10 AM, a recovery toward 22,990 around 10:30 AM failed, and after 11 AM it slipped steadily below 22,900 and toward 22,800 by noon. The afternoon brought more of the same — below 22,700 around 1:45 PM and an intraday low near 22,650 around 2:45 PM. After holding between 22,660 and 22,700 for much of the final hour, a sharp recovery in the closing minutes lifted Nifty back above 22,800 to close at 22,811.35, about 200 points below where it opened.

• Oil and bond yields: Brent crude traded around $110 a barrel amid renewed Middle East tensions, and India's 10-year government bond yield rose to 7.44%. Rising oil feeds into inflation worries, which push bond yields up — and higher yields make shares less attractive by comparison.

• Smaller companies fell much further: Next 50 fell 1.5%, Midcap 150 1.4%, Smallcap 250 2.3% and Microcap 250 2.6%. Over five sessions Smallcap 250 is down 4.4% and Microcap 250 4.5%, while the Nifty 50 is up 0.4%.

• Valuations: Nifty 50 trades at 19.3x trailing earnings, lower than on 99% of days since April 2021, and Next 50 at 17.6x, near its lowest of that period. Smallcap 250, at 32.5x, is still higher than on 79% of days, and Midcap 150 is at 27.3x.

• Where the options market is positioned: Options imply a range of about 22,411 to 23,070 into the October 27 expiry, with the largest put positions at 22,000 and the largest call positions at 23,000. The AMR sees the 50-day moving average, at 23,478, as the next major trend hurdle.

• Commodities: By 19:19 IST MCX crude was down 1.0% at ₹9,220 but up 9.4% over 20 sessions; natural gas fell 3.7%, gold 0.2% (₹1,46,214) and silver 0.9% (₹2,09,630). Silver is down 12.6% over 20 sessions.

• Oil at a one-month high: US crude climbed to around $100 a barrel, its highest since September 17, and Brent approached $110, after renewed attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and reports of a tanker striking a sea mine. Shipments through the strait remain near pre-war levels, and broader Middle Eastern exports have increased.

• France's borrowing costs at a 24-year high: France's 10-year government bond yield reached 5%, its highest since 2002, amid growing concern over the country's finances. Rising energy prices and interest-rate increases have added pressure to government bond markets worldwide.

• SpaceX results and a possible Tesla merger: SpaceX shares jumped 10% in pre-market trading after revenue rose 161% from a year earlier to $14.6 billion, with a quarterly profit of $4.4 billion against a loss last year. Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla and SpaceX have formed board committees to explore a potential merger.

• Netflix slips on a weaker outlook: Netflix fell 6% in pre-market trading after lowering its full-year advertising forecast and guiding to weaker fourth-quarter profit; the stock was already down more than 26% this year. In India, it reported its largest-ever quarterly subscriber additions, viewing hours up 24% and revenue up 18%, and a loyalty partnership with Flipkart.

• Bond yields at a three-year high: India's benchmark 10-year government bond yield climbed to 7.44%, its highest since March 2023, as Brent approached $110 amid renewed West Asia tensions. Yields are up 40 basis points over the past month and 85 basis points since the start of 2026.

• Jio Platforms IPO fully subscribed in 100 minutes: The ₹22,078 crore issue drew bids worth ₹22,354 crore within 100 minutes of opening. Institutional investors led, bidding 3.25 times their portion at that point, while retail bids were 0.23 times.

• Rupee at its strongest since early September: The rupee gained 46 paise (0.48%) to close at ₹94.45 per dollar, its strongest close since September 4, helped by optimism about an India-US trade deal and foreign inflows for the Jio Platforms IPO. On the deal, US President Donald Trump said: "They want to make a deal. We're going to make a deal. Pretty close, yeah."

• Core-sector growth at its fastest since November 2023: Infrastructure (core-sector) output grew 7.9% from a year earlier in September, its fastest pace since November 2023, led by coal (10.7%) and refinery products (10.3%). Crude oil, natural gas and fertiliser production continued to decline.

• Festive vehicle sales dipped: Vehicle registrations during Navratri fell 6.52% from a year earlier to 11.23 lakh units, with passenger vehicles down nearly 22% and two-wheelers 2.8%. Dealers' body FADA pointed to differences in the festive calendar and remained cautiously optimistic about demand around Dhanteras and Diwali.

• Today: Foreign investors sold a net ₹475 crore and domestic institutions bought ₹1,614 crore, per NSDL and exchange data. Monday's foreign purchase of ₹2,629 crore was unchanged in NSDL's data, so no correction is needed to the October 19 edition.

• The last ten sessions: From October 7 to 21, foreign investors sold a net ₹28,996 crore while domestic institutions — mutual funds, insurers, banks and pension funds — bought ₹32,670 crore, buying on nine of the ten days.

• Derivatives: Foreign investors sold a net ₹9,159 crore of index options on notional value, but bought ₹2,549 crore of stock futures, ₹283 crore of stock options and ₹256 crore of index futures. The AMR notes options look far larger on this measure, so the sign matters more than the size.

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