Nifty rebounds 0.7% to 22,753, ending a four-day losing streak; 13 of 15 sectors rise, led by metals

A weak open, then a steady climb. Nifty opened with a 76-point gap down at 22,524, tracking weak global cues amid elevated oil prices and growing concern about debt markets linked to the AI investment boom, and slipped toward 22,400 within 15 minutes. Buying emerged from the lows, pushing it back above 22,500 by 9:45 AM and toward 22,700 around 10:15 AM. Selling returned at higher levels, dragging it below 22,600 by 11 AM and toward 22,535 around 11:30 AM, before a recovery toward 22,600 by noon. After another dip toward 22,580, buying strengthened after 1 PM: Nifty reclaimed 22,650 by 1:20 PM, climbed above 22,700 around 2:05 PM and consolidated between 22,680 and 22,710 before a strong finish took it to 22,753.20, about 229 points above its open.

• Oil eased from last week's highs: Brent December futures were at $110.19 a barrel and US crude at $101.42 during Indian market hours, per Kotak Neo, down from Brent's high near $115 on Friday. Supply worries persisted after recent attacks on Saudi Arabia, but oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to near pre-war levels.

• Smaller companies joined in: Next 50 rose 1.0%, Midcap 150 and Smallcap 250 1.1% each, and Microcap 250 0.4%. Over five sessions they are still down 3.6%, 4.2%, 6.0% and 7.0%.

• Valuations: Nifty 50 trades at 19.2x trailing earnings, lower than on 99% of days since April 2021, and Next 50 at 17.2x. Midcap 150 is at 26.7x, lower than on 71% of days, while Smallcap 250, at 31.2x, is higher than on 70%.

• Into Tuesday's expiry: Put writing strengthened, lifting the put-call ratio from 0.81 to 1.11, and downside protection became more expensive. Options imply a range of about 22,580 to 22,957 for the October 27 expiry, with the largest put positions at 22,500 and call positions at 23,000. The AMR sees the 50-day average, at 23,370, as the next major trend hurdle.

• Commodities: By 20:02 IST MCX crude was down 1.9% at ₹9,611 but up 12.7% over 20 sessions. Gold rose 0.5% to ₹1,42,736 and silver slipped 0.6% to ₹1,94,632; silver is down 17.1% over 20 sessions. Zinc rose 2.2%.

• Brazil's markets plunge after Lula's re-election: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowly won Sunday's runoff, with about 51.8% of valid votes against Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.2%. On Monday the Ibovespa fell more than 10% at the open, triggering an automatic trading halt, and the real weakened sharply; reports of the full size of the fall differ.

• Oil eases on diplomacy: Crude prices declined as renewed diplomatic efforts involving Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey raised hopes of easing US-Iran tensions, and as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz recovered to near pre-war levels despite continued attacks on vessels.

• SpaceX borrows $40 billion for AI chips: SpaceX secured $40 billion of debt financing to buy GPUs for AI computing, backed by revenue from its Starlink and launch businesses. Elon Musk warned that AI-focused cloud companies without independent revenue could face funding constraints, consolidation and failures — part of a wider debate about debt linked to the AI investment boom.

• Verizon beats on subscribers: Verizon raised its annual wireless subscriber growth forecast after adding 406,000 postpaid subscribers in the third quarter, nearly double analysts' expectations, and signed an AI-infrastructure agreement worth over $2 billion with Amazon Web Services.

• Export support extended: The government extended the RELIEF scheme by six months to March 31, 2027, to support exporters facing higher shipping and insurance costs from West Asia tensions. Eligible exporters can get 95% risk cover through ECGC and protection against insurance premiums rising beyond pre-disruption levels.

• Tata Communications' AI network: Tata Communications plans to invest $400–450 million over three to five years in a 10,000-km fibre network connecting major data centres and AI hubs across India, with 7.2 petabytes of capacity.

• Results: Mankind Pharma and ITC Hotels: Mankind Pharma's net profit rose 37.7% to ₹716 crore on revenue up 17.3% to ₹4,338 crore. ITC Hotels' net profit rose 52% to ₹203 crore, with revenue from operations up 26% to ₹1,054 crore.

• Watching the monsoon deficit: Kotak Mahindra Bank's retail banking management said collection efficiency on tractor loans has improved significantly, with no visible impact on delinquencies as of the second quarter, but that it remains watchful, noting this monsoon's rainfall deficit of about 13%.

• Earlier figures held: Friday's foreign sale of ₹2,262 crore was unchanged in NSDL's data. Thursday's figure remains NSDL's net purchase of ₹1,407 crore, which had first been reported provisionally as a ₹3,459 crore sale.

• Today: Foreign investors bought a net ₹2,098 crore and domestic institutions ₹2,610 crore. The latest day's foreign figure may still be revised. Over the last ten sessions, foreign investors sold a net ₹6,114 crore and domestic institutions bought ₹21,363 crore.

• Derivatives: Foreign investors bought a net ₹4,716 crore of stock futures and ₹445 crore of index futures on notional value, and sold ₹1,484 crore of stock options and ₹7,790 crore of index options. The AMR notes options look far larger on this measure, so the sign matters more than the size.

“Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy.”