Nifty ends flat at 22,750 on monthly expiry while small caps jump 2.2%; Media leads 11 rising sectors

A volatile expiry that ended where Monday did. Nifty opened with a 44-point gap down at 22,709, tracking lacklustre global cues and weakness in IT stocks after reports that Microsoft is offering voluntary exit packages to about a quarter of its global workforce. It slipped toward 22,660 in the opening minutes, recovered sharply toward 22,800 around 10 AM and swung between about 22,700 and 22,780 through the morning. The afternoon opened strongly, with an intraday high near 22,830 around 12:40 PM, but sharp selling dragged the index below 22,690 by 1:15 PM and to a low near 22,640 around 2:15 PM. A recovery after 2:30 PM lifted it back toward 22,770 by 3 PM, and Nifty closed at 22,749.75 — about 41 points above its open and almost unchanged from Monday.

• Expiry-day positioning: Call writing strengthened, pulling the put-call ratio down from 1.11 to 1.05, and implied volatility eased from 16.9% to 15.4%. For the November 3 expiry, options imply a range of about 22,377 to 23,153, with the largest put positions at 22,000 and call positions at 23,500. The AMR sees the 50-day moving average, at 23,338, as the next major trend hurdle.

• Smaller companies led — from a low base: Smallcap 250 rose 2.2%, Microcap 250 1.7% and Midcap 150 0.9%. Over 20 sessions they are still down 6.8%, 8.1% and 6.4%, against 1.7% for the Nifty 50.

• Valuations: Nifty 50 trades at 19.1x trailing earnings and Next 50 at 17.2x, both lower than on virtually every day since April 2021. Midcap 150, at 26.5x, is lower than on 73% of days, while Smallcap 250, at 31.8x, is higher than on 73%.

• Oil and commodities: Brent December futures were at $110.95 a barrel and US crude at $102.04 around 3:36 PM, per Kotak Neo — near six-month highs after fresh attacks on Saudi Arabia, though prices eased on hopes the US-Iran conflict could move toward resolution. By 20:23 IST MCX crude was down 1.9% at ₹9,537, still up 11.1% over 20 sessions; gold rose 0.5% to ₹1,43,800 and silver 0.3% to ₹1,96,364.

• Microsoft offers buyouts to a quarter of its staff: Microsoft is offering voluntary buyouts to about 60,000 employees, more than a quarter of its global workforce, to control costs and fund its AI investments. The offers cover divisions including Copilot, Xbox, finance and Windows; marketing, commercial business and security teams are excluded.

• Nvidia invests $3 billion in Meta: Nvidia announced a $3 billion investment in Meta's equity offering as the two expand their partnership around Meta's Muse AI assistant, optimising Meta's models and agents on Nvidia's computing infrastructure.

• HSBC falls on a revenue miss: HSBC's third-quarter pretax profit rose 32% to $9.6 billion, broadly in line with expectations, but its shares fell 6% as revenue of $18.6 billion missed forecasts of $19 billion and guidance was left unchanged.

• PayPal raises its outlook: PayPal raised its full-year adjusted profit forecast on improving margins and resilient consumer spending.

• Diplomacy over Iran: Talks involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey, alongside possible discussions with Russia, supported hopes of de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict, although geopolitical risks remain elevated.

• Government reviews LTCG tax and STT: The government has sought feedback from investors, market participants and tax experts on long-term capital gains tax and securities transaction tax, amid persistent foreign portfolio outflows and growing debate over the impact of capital-market taxes on investment.

• SEBI on expiry-day trading: SEBI whole-time member KVR Murty said: "Some guardrails may be required, and people may need more guidance given the kind of activity that we have seen, particularly the heightened activity on expiry days." He added: "We do not want excessive regulation, nor do we want under-regulation. We aim for optimum regulation."

• Green ammonia exports: Japan's JERA signed a binding agreement with AM Green Ammonia to buy about 70,000 tonnes of green ammonia a year from India for five years, with provisions to extend the arrangement.

• Jio Platforms' listing: After drawing a reported record of more than 1 crore applications, Jio Platforms' shares are expected to list on October 28, according to the IPO's tentative timetable.

• Monday's figure held: Monday's foreign purchase of ₹2,098 crore was unchanged in NSDL's data, so no correction is needed to the October 26 edition.

• Today: Provisional exchange data show foreign investors buying a net ₹4,240 crore and domestic institutions selling ₹1,250 crore — the institutions' first net sale since October 16. The foreign figure may be revised: last Thursday's provisional ₹3,459 crore sale became a ₹1,407 crore purchase in NSDL's data. Including today's provisional figure, foreign investors bought a net ₹1,378 crore over the last ten sessions and domestic institutions ₹17,068 crore.

• Derivatives: Foreign investors bought a net ₹20,259 crore of index options on notional value, ₹3,161 crore of stock futures and ₹383 crore of stock options, and sold ₹2,849 crore of index futures. The AMR notes options look far larger on this measure, so the sign matters more than the size.

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