Nifty snaps a four-day slide with a second-half rally as FIIs sell ₹9,635 crore and the RBI decision looms

A gap-up, a fade, and a second-half rescue. Nifty opened 110 points higher at 22,532 on positive global cues, range-bound oil and stock-specific reactions to quarterly business updates, pushing to 22,620 within 30 minutes. The strength faded by 10 AM and selling intensified through the morning, taking the index below 22,450 and to an intraday low near 22,400 around noon. From there the recovery was gradual until buying picked up sharply after 1:30 PM, lifting Nifty back above 22,500 and toward 22,550, where it consolidated into the close at 22,555.75 — about 24 points above the open and 150+ points above the low. Overseas, seven of eight major markets rose in their latest sessions, led by Japan's Nikkei (+2.3%) and the S&P 500 (+1.6%); a market report also credited softer-than-expected US jobs data (29,000 added in September against 90,000 expected) with easing worries about a Federal Reserve rate hike.

• FMCG's rally was one stock's story, plus rotation into defensives: ITC's 5.1% jump (3.8x usual volume, long buildup in futures) did most of the work in the Nifty FMCG's 1.8% gain. The wider sector is still 10.1% below its 200-day average and 7.6% below its 100-day, so this is a bounce within a downtrend, not a trend change. Sugar stocks were the best of 80 niche themes (+4.3%) and Railways the worst of the six biggest decliners (-1.7%), per Tijori's baskets.

• IT cooled after Thursday's surge: Nifty IT closed flat at 28,302 after last week's rally. HCL Technologies was among the five weakest F&O stocks (-3.3%), while the futures data shows TCS (-5.0% open interest) and Coforge (-4.8%) seeing short covering and Infosys long unwinding. TCS reports on Thursday, October 8; options price a move of about ±6.5% by the October 27 expiry.

• Trading was heavier than usual: Cash turnover reached about ₹1.16 lakh crore (4.4% above the 20-session median) and value taken to delivery was ₹51,727 crore (15.6% above), suggesting genuine participation on both the morning selling and the afternoon buying.

• Crude eased, the dollar firmed: MCX crude oil was down 3.0% by 18:59 IST (₹8,646), though it is still 3.8% higher over 20 sessions; gold fell 0.4% and is down 2.8% over 20 sessions. Saudi Arabia cut its November Arab Light price for Asian buyers to a $5-per-barrel discount to Oman-Dubai, the widest since June 2020. The euro fell to a 17-month low against the dollar on French fiscal worries, with the dollar index at 102.23, after touching its highest since April 2025.

• Valuations are low, but earnings quality is the open question: At 19.3x trailing earnings, the Nifty 50's P/E is at the bottom 1% of readings since April 2021. Large caps are cheaper than 99% of days; small caps are the opposite — dearer than 90% of days at 34.2x. The gap says the correction has mostly hit large caps' multiples while small-cap valuations have been left comparatively stretched.

• Schneider Electric to buy PTC for about $22.6 billion: Its largest-ever deal, as it expands its exposure to data centres. Schneider's shares fell nearly 10% as investors weighed the size and the premium paid.

• US ETF inflows hit a record: Inflows into US-listed ETFs have reached over $1.54 trillion in 2026, already surpassing 2025's full-year record of $1.52 trillion with three months still to go.

• Foxconn's AI-driven quarter: Third-quarter revenue jumped 47% year-on-year to T$3.03 trillion, beating expectations on strong AI demand in its cloud and networking business, with consumer electronics also growing.

• Huawei and Qualcomm sign a patent licence: A broad multi-year agreement covering AI, 5G, computing and networking, which Huawei says takes the total value of its patent licensing agreements above $6.9 billion.

• Euro at a 17-month low: The currency fell against the dollar amid France's fiscal concerns and the recent bond sell-off; the dollar index rose to 102.23.

• India-US interim trade deal: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman called it "a hard and very rigorously negotiated agreement" and said negotiations are ongoing, though she believes both sides have reached "a plateau beyond which giving or taking might be very, very difficult."

• Foreign selling outweighed domestic buying for the first time in five sessions: FIIs sold a net ₹9,635 crore against DII buying of ₹5,182 crore. Note these are NSDL custodian and exchange-reported figures from the AMR, which can differ from NSE's provisional cash-segment print.

• In derivatives, foreign investors were net buyers of futures but sellers of options: On a notional basis they bought a net ₹2,431 crore of stock futures and ₹1,162 crore of index futures, while selling ₹2,718 crore of index options and ₹516 crore of stock options. The AMR cautions that options look larger on notional value, so the sign matters more than the size.

• Bulk deals were small and unfamiliar names: The day's largest disclosed deal was Ashika Global Finance buying ₹50 crore of Runwal Enterprises, followed by Negen Capital's ₹30 crore purchase of Acevector. IDFC First Bank was among the sellers of Acevector (₹10 crore).

“Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”