Nifty closes at the day's high, up 0.98%, as breadth surges and the RBI decision looms

A gradual climb, a late surge, and the RBI looming. Nifty opened 47 points higher at 22,603, tracking positive global cues (US markets traded at record highs), range-bound oil and some easing in negative positioning ahead of the RBI event. After some volatility in the first minutes, the index crossed 22,650 and briefly tested 22,700 around noon. Minor profit-booking was quickly absorbed. Buying strengthened after 12:30 PM, pushing Nifty above 22,700 and toward 22,730, and although it briefly slipped below 22,700 around 2:20 PM it recovered and held 22,700-22,725 through the final hour. A sharp surge in the closing minutes took the index to its high of 22,776.10, about 170 points above the open — a strong session, per the AMR, ahead of tomorrow's RBI decision.

• Defensive and cyclical sectors both participated: Chemicals led at +2.0%, followed by Pharma (+1.7%), Oil & Gas (+1.6%), and Private Banks and FMCG (+1.4% each). Pharma, Media and Healthcare remain the relative leaders over both 20 and 60 sessions. IT was the exception, with Nifty IT down 0.6%.

• Large caps still lag their own trend lines: The Nifty 50 closed 1.6% below its 20-day average, 4.4% below its 50-day, 4.5% below its 100-day and 6.3% below its 200-day. Smallcap 250 (+6.0% above its 200-day) and Microcap 250 (+12.0%) remain above their long-term trend — the small-cap end of the market has held up better through the correction.

• Valuations nudged up with prices, but are still low: The Nifty 50's trailing P/E is 19.5x (lower than on 99% of days since April 2021; 5-year median 22.1x). Nifty Next 50 is at 18.3x (cheaper than on 98% of days), Midcap 150 at 28.5x, and Smallcap 250 at 34.7x — higher than on 91% of days since 2021.

• Trading was lighter: Cash turnover was ₹1.10 lakh crore, 2.9% below the 20-session median, while value taken to delivery was ₹46,757 crore, 3.6% above it — fewer intraday trades but more shares actually held by buyers.

• Crude eased again, gold edged up: MCX crude oil was down 2.2% by 19:04 IST (₹8,479) and is down 4.8% over five sessions; Brent fell below $100 per barrel as Middle East exports kept recovering, with JPMorgan estimating shipments at 98% of pre-war levels. Gold gained 0.4% to ₹1,49,950.

• US stocks at record highs: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs as Treasury yields eased and oil prices declined. Nvidia gained 1.2%, taking its market value close to $6 trillion.

• Brent below $100: Crude fell below $100 per barrel as Middle East oil exports continued to recover; JPMorgan estimates shipments have returned to 98% of pre-war levels, easing supply concerns.

• Paramount Skydance completes its Warner Bros Discovery takeover: The $110 billion deal creates a combined entertainment company called Skydance under CEO David Ellison.

• AT&T forms a fiber joint venture: With BlackRock's Global Infrastructure Partners and CPP Investments, to accelerate the expansion of its fiber network across the US.

• US trade deficit widens: The August deficit rose 13.7% to $105.6 billion, more than expected, as strong domestic demand drove a surge in goods imports — a development that could weigh on Q3 growth.

• World Bank lifts India's FY27 growth forecast: Raised by 50bps to 7.1% on resilient domestic demand, with a caution that growth could slow in the second half; oil prices, El Niño and capital-flow volatility were named among the key risks.

• Services PMI at a three-month high: Rose to 55.2 in September from 54.1 in August on stronger demand for financial, consumer and digital services — though quarterly services growth was the weakest in more than four years.

• Record passenger-vehicle retail sales: Up 32.1% year-on-year to 4.27 lakh units in September, with overall automobile sales up 31.8%, two-wheelers up 33.1% and three-wheelers up 22.3% — a more upbeat read than last week's mixed manufacturer dispatch numbers.

• ₹10,000 crore SME Growth Fund approved: The Cabinet approved a government commitment to establish the fund, aimed at giving small and medium businesses growth capital, better access to equity and professional support.

• Festive hiring up, white-collar hiring down: Festive hiring grew 7% year-on-year to 1.27 lakh jobs in 2026, led by quick commerce, e-commerce and logistics, even as overall white-collar hiring fell 11% year-on-year in September.

• Power prices jumped: IEX's Day-Ahead Market clearing price rose 105% year-on-year to ₹7.3 per unit in September and Real-Time Market prices rose 108% to ₹6.9, amid strong electricity demand; IEX volumes rose 10.4% to 12,220 million units.

• IRDAI flags rising insurance costs: Chairman Ajay Seth said life insurers' cost of doing business has climbed from about 16.5% in FY21 to 22%, and general insurers' from around 26% to 32%, and asked the industry to return to the 15% efficiency levels seen five to six years ago for life insurance.

• Foreign selling has slowed but not stopped: FIIs sold a net ₹4,281 crore, their seventh straight session of net selling, but less than half of Monday's ₹9,635 crore. DIIs bought ₹5,089 crore, so domestic buying exceeded foreign selling today.

• In index futures, foreign investors were net buyers: They bought a net 8,666 contracts even as their long share of positions stayed near a low at 8.5% — consistent with trimming some bearish positions rather than turning outright bullish.

• The rupee is the other pressure point: At ₹96.42 per dollar, the rupee hit a more than two-month low on foreign equity outflows ahead of the RBI decision. A weaker rupee tends to amplify the dollar value of foreign investors' losses on Indian shares.

“The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator.”