Nifty rises 1.58% to 23,811 as earnings and cheaper oil extend the rally; FMCG jumps 3.6%

A gap-up, a steady climb and another strong close. Nifty opened with a 141-point gap-up at about 23,582, which the AMR links to a further fall in oil prices overnight and continued strong corporate earnings. After some early volatility it climbed towards 23,620 within the first 30 minutes and towards 23,660 around 10:45 AM, before profit-booking pulled it back towards 23,640. It held a narrow 23,640–23,670 range for much of the morning, touched 23,700 around noon, slipped towards 23,650 after 12:15 PM, then recovered to about 23,740 by 1:45 PM. A dip towards 23,680 around 2:30 PM gave way to a steady final hour, and a strong closing auction took it to 23,810.85 — about 230 points above its open and 370.05 above Monday. It never traded below Monday's close, and it ended well above the 23,177–23,482 range that options had implied on Monday for Tuesday's weekly expiry.

• Oil: The AMR says oil prices declined further overnight, extending Monday's fall as US–Iran diplomacy eased supply worries. Around 3:36 PM, Kotak Neo quoted Brent January 2027 futures at $105.46 a barrel and US crude (WTI) December futures at $97.34. Oil & Gas rose 0.8%.

• Broader market: Next 50 and Midcap 150 rose 1.0% each, Smallcap 250 0.4% and Microcap 250 0.3%. Over 20 sessions the Nifty 50 is up 5.6% and Next 50 0.6%, while Midcap 150, Smallcap 250 and Microcap 250 are down 1.1%, 3.4% and 6.2%. The Nifty 50 is above three of its four key moving averages; the Microcap 250 is above only its 200-day.

• Valuations: Nifty 50 trades at 19.7x trailing earnings, lower than on 96% of days since April 2021 in the AMR's data, and Next 50 at 17.0x, lower than on every day. Midcap 150, at 26.9x, is lower than on 68% of days, while Smallcap 250, at 31.4x, is higher than on 70%.

• Options positioning: Put writing strengthened, lifting the put-call ratio (puts open divided by calls open) from 1.40 to 1.50, and implied volatility rose to 15.3%, making protection slightly costlier. For the November 9 expiry, options imply a range of about 23,350 to 24,095, with the largest put open interest at 23,000 and call open interest at 24,000. Short covering dominated futures: eight of the twelve biggest changes in open interest were traders closing bets against stocks that rose, including the Nifty itself. The 200-day moving average, at 24,013, is the next major technical hurdle in the AMR's view.

• Commodities: By 20:43 IST, MCX crude was up 0.3% at ₹9,101 (down 4.2% over five sessions) and natural gas flat; gold fell 0.5% to ₹1,39,435 and silver 1.9% to ₹1,80,265, leaving silver down 20.7% over 20 sessions. Copper fell 1.9% and aluminium 1.7%.

• AI spending worries: Global shares came under pressure as renewed concerns over AI-related spending and valuations weighed on technology stocks, per the AMR. Investors also stayed cautious as voting began in the US midterm elections, whose outcome could influence regulation and oversight of the AI industry.

• Oracle's $20 billion raise: Oracle announced plans to raise $20 billion through bond and share offerings to fund its AI and cloud infrastructure. It priced 86.2 million shares at $116 each, an 11.2% discount to Friday's close — one of a growing number of technology companies turning to capital markets to finance AI spending, per the AMR.

• Tesla in China: Sales of China-made Tesla electric vehicles rose 10.3% from a year earlier to 67,829 units in October, accelerating from 5% growth in September and marking a 12th straight month of annual growth.

• Wall Street: At Tuesday's US close, the Dow fell 0.49% to 51,727.46 while the S&P 500 rose 0.29% to 7,563.40 and the Nasdaq Composite 0.62% to 25,319.75, per Kotak Neo.

• Gold demand: India's gold demand fell 30% from a year earlier to 162 tonnes in the September quarter, from 230 tonnes, as high prices discouraged purchases. In value terms demand rose 3% to ₹2.42 lakh crore, while jewellery demand fell 20% to 100 tonnes, per the AMR.

• NSE results: The National Stock Exchange reported a 17.4% fall in consolidated net profit from the previous quarter to ₹2,578 crore, and a 10.8% fall in revenue to ₹4,067 crore, though average daily cash-market trading volumes rose 24% from a year earlier.

• Near round-the-clock trading at GIFT City: NSE International Exchange (NSEIX) began trading on an extended 23.5-hour schedule, from 3:15 AM IST to 2:45 AM IST the following day, aiming to give near-continuous access across Asian, European and US trading hours.

• Festive shopping: Amazon reported more than 50% growth in shopping volumes during its Great Indian Festival sale, with over 393 crore customer visits; one in three orders was delivered the same day, per the AMR.

• The Finance Minister on investors: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, quoted in the AMR, said: "I realise the sensitivity and anxiety prevailing among retail investors, especially equity participants, while not being biased either way." She added that sustaining growth at 7% or above remained paramount: "for that, we need capital."

• Today (provisional): Domestic institutions sold a net ₹3,679 crore, their third net sale in a row and the largest of the ten sessions charted. Foreign investors bought a net ₹6,837 crore in NSE's provisional data; that figure may be revised when NSDL reports.

• Monday confirmed: NSDL's data now show foreign investors bought a net ₹4,319 crore on November 2 — the figure our November 2 edition charted, against NSE's provisional ₹3,115 crore. No earlier figures changed. Using the AMR's chart, foreign investors bought a net ₹15,081 crore over the last ten sessions and domestic institutions ₹6,778 crore.

• Derivatives: Foreign investors bought a net ₹4,711 crore of index futures on notional value, ₹3,001 crore of stock futures and ₹217 crore of stock options, and sold ₹2,832 crore of index options. The AMR notes options look far larger on this measure, so the sign matters more than the size.

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